Source: Politico Europe
Introduction
Poland is currently navigating a period of significant social turbulence as the nation’s political landscape experiences a sharp, anti-Ukrainian turn. With a pivotal parliamentary election on the horizon for late 2027, nationalist factions are increasingly weaponizing anti-immigrant rhetoric, casting the country’s 1.5 million Ukrainian residents as a burden on public coffers and a source of historical friction.
This shift in discourse, characterized by a rise in both verbal hostility and physical violence, has transformed Poland’s anti-Ukrainian turn into a central and volatile issue of national debate. As political actors compete for influence, the long-standing solidarity between Warsaw and Kyiv is facing unprecedented strain, leaving the Ukrainian community in Poland caught in the crossfire of domestic electoral maneuvering.
What Happened
The climate toward Ukrainians in Poland has deteriorated noticeably throughout 2025 and 2026. Tensions reached a flashpoint this past summer when Polish President Karol Nawrocki revoked the Order of the White Eagle, the nation's most prestigious honor, previously awarded to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This move served as a direct retaliation for Kyiv’s decision to designate a military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), a group associated with the 1943-1945 massacres of Polish civilians.
Political leaders have increasingly utilized this historical grievance and concerns over social welfare spending to appeal to nationalist voters. Figures such as Przemysław Czarnek, the Law and Justice party's prime ministerial candidate, have publicly called for the total suspension of military aid to Ukraine until the country revises its stance on historical policy. Similarly, far-right figures like European Parliament member Grzegorz Braun have explicitly labeled the current Kyiv government an enemy rather than an ally.
Background
Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland has functioned as one of Kyiv's most steadfast international partners. However, as the 2027 parliamentary election approaches, the unity of the current pro-Ukraine coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk is being tested by nationalist rivals, including the Confederation party and Law and Justice.
Sociologist Rafał Pankowski, co-founder of the anti-racism organization Never Again, notes that while the general public remains largely supportive of Ukrainian refugees, the proliferation of populist rhetoric has provided a dangerous platform for xenophobia. This environment has been further exacerbated by the influence of foreign disinformation campaigns, which have successfully exploited existing fissures in public opinion.
Timeline and Statistical Data
| Metric | Data/Observation |
|---|---|
| Polish sympathy toward Ukrainians (2023) | 51% |
| Polish sympathy toward Ukrainians (Jan 2026) | 29% |
| Polish antipathy toward Ukrainians (2023) | 38% |
| Polish antipathy toward Ukrainians (Jan 2026) | 43% |
| Primary cause of negative sentiment: History | 45.4% |
| Primary cause of negative sentiment: Benefits | 36.4% |
| Hate crime reports (H1 2025 vs H1 2026) | 30% increase |
Key Details
The human cost of this political polarization is becoming increasingly apparent in daily life. Many Ukrainians residing in Poland report a profound sense of alienation, with some opting to hide their native language in public spaces to avoid confrontations or harassment. Documented incidents range from verbal abuse in transit and public areas to physical assaults, such as the July beating of a young couple outside a grocery store in Wrocław.
Official data from the Polish government highlights the severity of the trend, with 180 ethnically motivated crimes against Ukrainians recorded in the first half of 2026 alone. In response, the administration established 50 specialized prosecution teams to address the surge in hate-based offenses. Between February and June 2026, prosecutors brought 283 cases to court, with Ukrainians identified as the victims in over 80 percent of those instances.
Impact
The exploitation of the "Ukrainian issue" has effectively turned a vulnerable minority into a political wedge. Prime Minister Tusk has publicly criticized the silence of the presidential office, warning that the prevailing atmosphere of impunity has emboldened hooligans and extremists. He argued that the current climate of hostility is a direct consequence of political actors providing a form of protection to those inciting violence.
The Roman Catholic Church in Poland has also intervened, calling for a cessation of nationalistic sentiment that risks further fracturing society. Despite these appeals, the government’s own policy of tightening social welfare access and enforcing strict deportation measures for even minor offenses—such as a recent case involving a teenager who jumped a concert barrier—has contributed to an environment of pervasive fear among the Ukrainian diaspora.
What Happens Next
As the autumn 2027 parliamentary election draws near, the political discourse remains deadlocked. Ukrainian Ambassador to Poland, Vasyl Bodnar, has emphasized the urgent need for more responsible communication from government officials and media outlets to de-escalate tensions. Whether political leaders will pivot toward constructive dialogue or continue to utilize anti-Ukrainian sentiment as a campaign tool remains the defining uncertainty for the future of Polish-Ukrainian relations.
